CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93a4460d3778ccbf795678299fecea28e14adf4e8cd64d73189f569a3eb0065

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: GamerLegionof Astralis, GamerLegion
Resolved: Sep 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $132,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $132,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,892 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8b1d…74ccbacked GamerLegion	42c	107,070$44,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62,386.6	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…085dbacked Astralis	58c	80,920$47,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47,042.12	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Astralis	58c	15,000$8,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,700	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked GamerLegion	44c	12,786$5,581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,204.57	836	52.5%439 W · 397 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Astralis	58c	11,111$6,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,444.38	882	42.3%373 W · 509 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Astralis	42c	4,028$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700	670	41.8%280 W · 390 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked GamerLegion	70c	3,000$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	180	51.1%92 W · 88 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Astralis	59c	2,573$1,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.07	154	52.6%81 W · 73 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Astralis	52c	1,888$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.97	123	28.5%35 W · 88 L	-9.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd773…549ebacked Astralis	59c	1,695$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Astralis	58c	1,111$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.43	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Astralis	29c	1,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	130	50%65 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed GamerLegion	58c	1,000$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.3	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefab…a304backed Astralis	58c	934$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.72	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Astralis	59c	854.53$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.17	262	51.1%134 W · 128 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Astralis	52c	845.27$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.33	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Astralis	23c	732.91$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.57	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Astralis	59c	708.47$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418	244	40.6%99 W · 145 L	-12.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked GamerLegion	44c	700$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392	1,144	49.4%565 W · 579 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Astralis	43c	673.33$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.4	110	30.9%34 W · 76 L	-11.3wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-23%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Astralis	56c	591.67$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.33	88	38.6%34 W · 54 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed GamerLegion	75c	538.99$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.93	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Astralis	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	-9.7wins	-0.12per pick	68cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed GamerLegion	54c	484.2$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.89	163	35%57 W · 106 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed GamerLegion	41c	437$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.83	216	39.8%86 W · 130 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Astralis	55c	427.6$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	687	53.9%370 W · 317 L	-21.6wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed GamerLegion	50c	420$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	463	40.8%189 W · 274 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Astralis	26c	393.18$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.23	283	51.9%147 W · 136 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8456…b31dbacked Astralis	60c	333.33$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Astralis	58c	317.53$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.86	298	55%164 W · 134 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Astralis	59c	300.27$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.08	220	56.4%124 W · 96 L	+19.9wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5ec…18f4backed GamerLegion	41c	259$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.81	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Astralis	41c	236.98$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.17	273	45.8%125 W · 148 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Astralis	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6466…4633backed Astralis	23c	217.39$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Astralis	41c	216.71$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	234	54.7%128 W · 106 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked GamerLegion	42c	200$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	1,262	46.9%592 W · 670 L	-34.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed GamerLegion	42c	193$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.94	259	41.3%107 W · 152 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e93…6a20backed Astralis	57c	192.37$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.65	106	33%35 W · 71 L	-9.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Astralis	57c	175.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	208	56.3%117 W · 91 L	+9.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671f…af9cbacked Astralis	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Astralis	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Astralis	19c	149.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.37	236	46.2%109 W · 127 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed GamerLegion	43c	139.53$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.53	854	46.4%396 W · 458 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa2b…adcfbacked GamerLegion	43c	135.67$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.33	172	36.6%63 W · 109 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd053…3202backed Astralis	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked GamerLegion	42c	119.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.05	498	49.6%247 W · 251 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed GamerLegion	43c	116.28$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.28	965	45.7%441 W · 524 L	+10.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7c…5947backed Astralis	37c	108.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	86	29.1%25 W · 61 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8402backed Astralis	60c	108.33$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-5.1wins	-0.34per pick	67cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis	37c	96.28$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.65	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked GamerLegion	42c	90.48$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.48	201	45.8%92 W · 109 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf135…eb06backed Astralis	19c	88.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+3.8wins	+0.27per pick	30cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Astralis	57c	87$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.59	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Astralis	59c	59.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	736	58.2%428 W · 308 L	-22.8wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Astralis	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b8…5d35backed Astralis	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	37.4%136 W · 228 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Astralis	59c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	354	54.2%192 W · 162 L	-20.1wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe936…8944backed Astralis	58c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	65cpaid	-21%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Astralis	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	420	57.1%240 W · 180 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market