TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Dayton Flyers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, Bradley Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,169 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x617b…a499backed Dayton Flyers53c6,881$3,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,241.6824451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Bradley Braves47c4,218$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.4139454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bradley Braves46c3,926$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.0612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Dayton Flyers55c3,227$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.6627450%137 W · 137 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Dayton Flyers53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41048855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bradley Braves49c2,609$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.6315557.4%89 W · 66 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8311…e2b5backed Dayton Flyers50c2,043$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bradley Braves47c2,042$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.861,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d66…22d1backed Dayton Flyers53c2,000$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.867450%37 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bradley Braves46c1,450$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.815,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Dayton Flyers51c1,110$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.912,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a1…ab45backed Dayton Flyers53c900.3$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dayton Flyers53c868.87$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.452,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Bradley Braves48c770.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.089866.3%65 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Bradley Braves47c715.71$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3822043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…945ebacked Bradley Braves50c708$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac07…6159backed Bradley Braves50c704$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0123…fb8bbacked Bradley Braves50c640$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Dayton Flyers53c559.62$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.7323754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Bradley Braves47c421.82$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2683350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Dayton Flyers54c370.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4524857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Bradley Braves47c295.28$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.781,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Dayton Flyers53c228.71$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1079545.3%43 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Bradley Braves46c176.25$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0875447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bradley Braves41c163.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4330652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Bradley Braves46c156.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.958350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Bradley Braves49c141.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3910144.6%45 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Bradley Braves46c119.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0214245.8%65 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Dayton Flyers54c104.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0717258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Bradley Braves47c101.41$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5662451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Dayton Flyers52c94.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.450548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Dayton Flyers53c93.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.794546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Dayton Flyers54c92.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4614051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Bradley Braves47c82.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4835338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Bradley Braves48c82.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4930152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Bradley Braves46c74.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1622047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6132…2e70backed Dayton Flyers54c44.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.271942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf93e…96eabacked Dayton Flyers53c38.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Bradley Braves47c37.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8329650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ed…96e1backed Dayton Flyers53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.927162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Bradley Braves47c33.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8550745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Dayton Flyers53c32.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.294240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Dayton Flyers53c32.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.277657.9%44 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Bradley Braves46c31.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.627561.3%46 W · 29 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b7e…1a39backed Dayton Flyers55c30.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bradley Braves50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Dayton Flyers54c29.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.681668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d0…a2a2backed Dayton Flyers55c27.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.171080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+44.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bradley Braves47c25.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a73…de17backed Dayton Flyers50c21.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61de…436cbacked Dayton Flyers53c20.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd35e…a1e8backed Dayton Flyers54c20.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Dayton Flyers61c18.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3519454.6%106 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.