UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf953cd55077fb97b637456a3750fe187b933a2fca8b3a94e0310f2fad2027a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 33c | 6,200$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.48 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 68c | 3,274$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.32 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 33c | 1,954$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.7 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 66c | 1,862$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.54 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 34c | 1,488$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.08 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 33c | 967.31$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 67c | 729$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.43 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 32c | 289.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 68c | 264.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 33c | 232.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Over | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Over | 67c | 173$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 68c | 168.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 68c | 161.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Over | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 68c | 116$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Under | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 34c | 47.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…be77backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Over | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Shanelle Dyer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.