TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanelle Dyerof Shanelle Dyer, Ravena Oliveira
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ravena Oliveira17c6,646$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.138848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Ravena Oliveira17c6,406$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.9710949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Ravena Oliveira13c5,737$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.1618038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Ravena Oliveira17c5,191$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.484548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ravena Oliveira17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Ravena Oliveira13c4,775$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.088248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Ravena Oliveira18c1,607$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5137754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Ravena Oliveira17c1,275$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Ravena Oliveira1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick1cpaid+327.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Shanelle Dyer80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Ravena Oliveira1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Ravena Oliveira18c833.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012833.6%43 W · 85 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Ravena Oliveira18c833.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c6…6657backed Ravena Oliveira13c755.59$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Shanelle Dyer80c713$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.64461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Ravena Oliveira18c636.35$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.541136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ravena Oliveira23c491$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.715841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Ravena Oliveira18c481$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.584546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Ravena Oliveira20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020837%77 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Ravena Oliveira23c358$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.73148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ravena Oliveira17c306.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5615540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Ravena Oliveira22c289.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6214543.4%63 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed Ravena Oliveira19c284.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked Ravena Oliveira20c270$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Ravena Oliveira19c258.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503040%12 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Ravena Oliveira20c251$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.384240.5%17 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ravena Oliveira10c204.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8122438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Shanelle Dyer77c192.76$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.971566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Ravena Oliveira18c170.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.751010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-82%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked Ravena Oliveira18c161.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295250%26 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Ravena Oliveira23c149.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4114827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Ravena Oliveira18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed Shanelle Dyer79c131.58$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.646475%48 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Ravena Oliveira16c125.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Ravena Oliveira20c119.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.922437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed Ravena Oliveira18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb7…ea7bbacked Ravena Oliveira18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f40…5401backed Ravena Oliveira18c111.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Ravena Oliveira20c101.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Ravena Oliveira21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Ravena Oliveira18c97.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7413646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d0…6ab2backed Shanelle Dyer79c95.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.057463.5%47 W · 27 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab1f…8422backed Ravena Oliveira19c85.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Ravena Oliveira18c85.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9513221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Ravena Oliveira18c81.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.692236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Ravena Oliveira18c81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Ravena Oliveira18c80.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4619230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Shanelle Dyer44c59.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.242846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Shanelle Dyer80c55.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1542054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c5…5da0backed Ravena Oliveira20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa423…d3dfbacked Shanelle Dyer50c40.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…3a37backed Shanelle Dyer74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Shanelle Dyer75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d0…16a4backed Shanelle Dyer76c26.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Shanelle Dyer78c24.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.363246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Shanelle Dyer78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.