UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72dc1e95c2add9c5037b7f201b023c27fe93661cce623c4b13df650bb45d3ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanelle Dyerof Shanelle Dyer, Ravena Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 6,646$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.13 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 6,406$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.97 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ravena Oliveira | 13c | 5,737$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.16 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 5,191$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.48 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Ravena Oliveira | 13c | 4,775$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.08 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 1,607$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 1,275$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Ravena Oliveira | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 1cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…f8e1backed Shanelle Dyer | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Ravena Oliveira | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…6657backed Ravena Oliveira | 13c | 755.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Shanelle Dyer | 80c | 713$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 636.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ravena Oliveira | 23c | 491$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.71 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 481$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Ravena Oliveira | 23c | 358$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ravena Oliveira | 17c | 306.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ravena Oliveira | 22c | 289.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Ravena Oliveira | 19c | 284.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 270$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Ravena Oliveira | 19c | 258.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 251$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ravena Oliveira | 10c | 204.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Shanelle Dyer | 77c | 192.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 170.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -82%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 161.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Ravena Oliveira | 23c | 149.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Shanelle Dyer | 79c | 131.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Ravena Oliveira | 16c | 125.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 119.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…44c3backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…ea7bbacked Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 111.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 101.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Ravena Oliveira | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 97.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…6ab2backed Shanelle Dyer | 79c | 95.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…8422backed Ravena Oliveira | 19c | 85.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 85.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 132 | 21.2%28 W · 104 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…6e0fbacked Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 81.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Ravena Oliveira | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Shanelle Dyer | 44c | 59.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shanelle Dyer | 80c | 55.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c5…5da0backed Ravena Oliveira | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Shanelle Dyer | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…3a37backed Shanelle Dyer | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Shanelle Dyer | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…16a4backed Shanelle Dyer | 76c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Shanelle Dyer | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Shanelle Dyer | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.