TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,863 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed MOUZ45c19,542$8,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,703.8354556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ54c13,840$7,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,407.3155157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed OG60c12,197$7,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,844.1142650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ40c9,633$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900.4960542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed OG60c7,725$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,089.8810445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG53c7,263$3,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.451,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed OG47c6,784$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.4212156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed OG47c4,900$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.7148954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked MOUZ35c4,686$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.2336851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OG49c4,466$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.2166662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked MOUZ48c4,051$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94022842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OG53c3,105$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.791,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG46c3,068$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.742,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked OG76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72041242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ56c2,965$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.641,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed OG47c2,855$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.0516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7576…3ff4backed OG50c2,385$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.443158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed OG55c2,082$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.1960552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed MOUZ12c2,046$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4224251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed OG55c1,916$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed OG74c1,524$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5431245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed OG56c1,282$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.9915650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed OG56c1,200$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed OG54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ49c920.49$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked OG46c875.64$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0233845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed OG50c820.6$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.846649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed OG43c810.37$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.9128650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked OG49c770$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.756542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed OG41c697.56$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.8914751.7%76 W · 71 L+11.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe3…fec3backed MOUZ64c636.43$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ43c619.02$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.021,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed OG55c599.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27028549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked OG49c589.76$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.761,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed OG48c517.67$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.5312252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked MOUZ53c500$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8642145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked OG45c491.57$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG46c487.64$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.652,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed OG46c485.47$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1511043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…c217backed OG52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c5a…acc3backed MOUZ48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked MOUZ54c372.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20088166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed OG54c367.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.271,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…8ca4backed MOUZ57c352.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ44c327.19$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7577458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked OG60c322.36$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked OG64c312.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7114657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed OG52c300.1$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked MOUZ47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14112132.2%39 W · 82 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed MOUZ57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17119664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed MOUZ40c275$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11038855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7765…04d9backed MOUZ46c269.68$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba27…3f88backed MOUZ18c253.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ39c249.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.528244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed OG48c248.5$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4228544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ38c234.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed OG58c223.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc26f…ce3bbacked MOUZ64c205.15$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.945950.8%30 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10443647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3c…4806backed MOUZ55c198.63$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed MOUZ52c190.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked MOUZ57c181.73$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9816550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked OG56c170$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.814744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c16…9145backed MOUZ53c166.72$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed MOUZ42c166.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed MOUZ38c157$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5834443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked MOUZ67c150$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed OG56c133.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.932268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ29c129.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.861,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed OG60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa6…8046backed MOUZ56c124.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.12366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked MOUZ56c120.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.512348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed OG44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6411757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c6…54cbbacked OG41c110.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.315246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+38.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed OG44c109$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1322643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed MOUZ47c107.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.357654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed OG56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4445457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked OG47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5373554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked OG47c98.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0416440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba0…5473backed MOUZ45c94.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.43860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea9…42a1backed MOUZ44c88.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394250%21 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked OG43c86.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.892,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed OG47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1115064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfadf…fa2bbacked MOUZ55c83.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked MOUZ54c82.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9213752.6%72 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed MOUZ57c82.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5915549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked MOUZ56c81.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4613247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed OG60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed MOUZ39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.822456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed OG57c78.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.75552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed OG51c76.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.713871.1%27 W · 11 L+8.3wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc093…de0ebacked MOUZ45c75.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.963438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3726…8521backed OG53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b2…03acbacked MOUZ54c74.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.242035%7 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2d1…26e0backed MOUZ58c72.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked OG46c72.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.799350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd7…ee69backed OG47c71.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.931216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6424…3045backed MOUZ39c70.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.