TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof OG, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,330 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d85…c436backed OG0c25,040$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed MOUZ50c19,524$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,824.1454556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked OG48c18,221$8,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,805.1455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed MOUZ52c15,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked OG50c13,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed MOUZ49c11,240$5,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,757.599657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked OG53c9,348$4,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,987.226150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed MOUZ48c5,872$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.911854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed MOUZ52c5,500$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64010445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141f…7711backed OG52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked OG51c4,858$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.776043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed OG50c4,802$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.9122643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed OG49c3,548$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.9516142.9%69 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed OG40c3,159$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.812156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…b5febacked OG11c3,042$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed OG49c3,000$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.3564744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ52c2,718$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.491,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed MOUZ50c2,636$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.7832854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed MOUZ79c2,400$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.0418661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked OG38c2,302$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.6925446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OG50c2,100$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.3266662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ66c2,047$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.081,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked OG50c2,021$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.6941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked MOUZ48c1,821$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.631952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG47c1,657$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.012,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7576…3ff4backed MOUZ70c1,277$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.613158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed OG23c1,200$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8131245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed OG2c1,196$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed MOUZ50c1,190$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.034440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ52c1,116$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.5622954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed OG45c1,043$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2233041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed OG47c1,033$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4855543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed OG50c1,003$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.41,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked OG50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked OG25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed OG50c990$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4956735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed OG48c967.31$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.3160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked MOUZ49c942.83$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.179257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed OG46c925.93$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked OG48c902.93$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.9360646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ53c825.75$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.6345139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed MOUZ52c812.31$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.1846649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed OG50c688$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34415650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed OG50c668$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33341655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed OG48c642.79$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.244746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MOUZ49c600.98$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.881,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked OG33c545.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1813142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked OG37c536.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ54c507.08$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.092,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked OG53c481.24$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25514657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed OG45c437.56$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.929245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed OG47c424.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ46c420.15$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ57c413.57$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed OG50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked OG43c395.34$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.748447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked MOUZ52c371.96$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f1…67a9backed OG32c360.09$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked OG11c353.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8437811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed MOUZ53c347.52$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7511757.3%67 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ52c330.64$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8157455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed OG52c325.2$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ52c322.62$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.621,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5261…3ddbbacked MOUZ55c302.71$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.713661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MOUZ53c284.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1645046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed OG53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked OG50c256.18$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ45c220$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.628244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked OG49c204.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda6…6ae0backed OG47c190$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9936051.9%187 W · 173 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed MOUZ54c185.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3311845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed OG51c171.22$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3238653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed MOUZ74c170.04$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2112661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea9…42a1backed MOUZ50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804250%21 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106f…d28fbacked OG53c148.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.22646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc26f…ce3bbacked OG48c145.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705950.8%30 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc296…0fdcbacked OG10c135.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.862920.7%6 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-59.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked MOUZ54c128.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0133845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ75c127.79$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1425457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked OG53c116$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8819443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OG19c106.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.364123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba0…5473backed MOUZ49c102.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.233860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44b2…03acbacked OG50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502035%7 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed MOUZ49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5148352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed OG53c99.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5930534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked OG53c93.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed MOUZ51c91.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.974546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed MOUZ71c88.06$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5412252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6312…8bf0backed MOUZ53c75.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.66771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13aa…88d6backed MOUZ55c73.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3318769%129 W · 58 L+20.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked OG53c73.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed OG49c71.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked MOUZ56c69.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.369350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ66c65.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed MOUZ50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked MOUZ51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8237441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c40…66a4backed OG51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked OG37c58.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7637754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked OG52c57.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.