UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9fc8af43159d1df8a766bd275c0dd539c0395a8bbaaa8e208ec0752961ffe9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 15,537$5,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,865.47 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 62c | 13,268$8,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,041.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 63c | 1,956$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…3497backed Over | 63c | 902.36$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 37c | 429.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Over | 63c | 391.12$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 65c | 300.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 38c | 273.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…d76dbacked Over | 63c | 265.03$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 63c | 243.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 36c | 226.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 38c | 196.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Under | 33c | 118.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…c161backed Over | 63c | 108.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Under | 41c | 94.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 63c | 93.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 60c | 93.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 61c | 55.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 40c | 48.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Over | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…a1e0backed Over | 64c | 46.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…7579backed Over | 66c | 44.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca5…9343backed Under | 39c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…cb2cbacked Over | 63c | 32.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cd…b42ebacked Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…5de1backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ba…d462backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…84d3backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Under | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 40c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x35a3…2d69backed Over | 63c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…a24fbacked Over | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked Over | 64c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Card)Raoni Barcelos won
- Will Montel Jackson win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.