TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yellow Submarineof MOUZ, Yellow Submarine
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ67c6,264$4,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,214.4379959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Yellow Submarine37c5,409$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.1289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Yellow Submarine45c4,972$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.1580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ53c4,820$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed MOUZ64c4,471$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,877.2261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Yellow Submarine50c4,275$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.221,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Yellow Submarine33c4,256$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.0896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine34c4,142$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,714.261,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ41c2,381$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.9755251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Yellow Submarine61c1,931$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.6242145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked MOUZ70c1,875$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.644634.8%16 W · 30 L-8.2wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed MOUZ73c1,631$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1909063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Yellow Submarine43c1,502$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.78250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked MOUZ62c1,475$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.5910966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed MOUZ42c1,379$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.1514562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine30c1,372$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.971,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Yellow Submarine46c1,302$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.9529240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed MOUZ27c1,158$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.146664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed MOUZ68c1,150$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78212250%61 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked MOUZ38c1,123$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.964761.7%29 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked MOUZ44c1,115$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.1989938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45dd…c32ebacked Yellow Submarine66c1,087$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.674740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Yellow Submarine49c1,018$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.1837945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Yellow Submarine50c996.3$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.357449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked MOUZ53c904.04$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1410541%43 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2978…4a1cbacked Yellow Submarine30c835$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.56873.5%50 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ44c804.88$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.971,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yellow Submarine26c765.98$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.8456243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ40c737.49$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3347548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked MOUZ70c715.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Yellow Submarine41c704.97$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.975952.5%31 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Yellow Submarine67c694.28$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.731,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked MOUZ76c677$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.526448.4%31 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed MOUZ51c676.86$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.222644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Yellow Submarine39c668.29$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.2948053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Yellow Submarine46c626.25$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.4461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked MOUZ49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine30c599.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9967555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed MOUZ69c578.05$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.489946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…5415backed MOUZ17c576.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003953.8%21 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yellow Submarine27c570.74$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9119242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yellow Submarine58c570.16$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.372,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fb…f9d1backed MOUZ27c538.17$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.416240.7%66 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Yellow Submarine77c514.25$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed MOUZ63c489$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0567853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Yellow Submarine53c484.97$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3220740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ff6…3a39backed MOUZ56c446.88$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.252152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked MOUZ75c435.36$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.424452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed MOUZ35c428.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Yellow Submarine48c411$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0766947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Yellow Submarine40c410.72$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7248054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yellow Submarine77c406$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked MOUZ54c401.35$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Yellow Submarine26c400$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2966445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yellow Submarine24c388.71$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.756144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yellow Submarine64c374.02$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed MOUZ24c343.04$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0713144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Yellow Submarine56c323.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked MOUZ64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19218952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked MOUZ68c295.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20036761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed MOUZ76c295.46$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.559555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1afd…427ebacked MOUZ34c294.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.211631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Yellow Submarine37c293.95$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed Yellow Submarine34c292.12$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.515356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yellow Submarine24c284.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.7412642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6859…2d79backed MOUZ13c283.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ6c279$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed MOUZ53c269$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3858943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed MOUZ76c268.66$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.08650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ58c266.52$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.642,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f4…fa45backed MOUZ29c258.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.022536%9 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yellow Submarine50c256.14$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1429347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Yellow Submarine73c254.52$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1452649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yellow Submarine51c253.28$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed MOUZ37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Yellow Submarine25c235$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.254436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yellow Submarine31c234.21$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6710735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed MOUZ12c225$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711450.9%58 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed MOUZ41c211.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.366442.2%27 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed MOUZ51c204.8$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Yellow Submarine37c203.85$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4324137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed MOUZ68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed MOUZ36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7251544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yellow Submarine25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504557.8%26 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yellow Submarine46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10863032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Yellow Submarine37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12665441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Yellow Submarine36c192.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked MOUZ56c190$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8622543.6%98 W · 127 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Yellow Submarine47c186$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6564547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb6…bddfbacked MOUZ73c175$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.59853.1%52 W · 46 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ35c174.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.631,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec17…44bcbacked MOUZ30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MOUZ57c159.96$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.091,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Yellow Submarine31c158.06$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0623342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…a67bbacked MOUZ64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yellow Submarine39c152.71$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.531,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked MOUZ26c152.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.683366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ64c151.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9757455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97e…dff7backed MOUZ67c148.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed MOUZ43c144.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6214648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.