Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05dd751952714170d2dd4f898bc28247d494eca6b9d2679e164531746e4bd9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed MOUZ | 55c | 12,687$6,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,688.12 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yellow Submarine | 36c | 12,122$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,366.22 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 5,000$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ | 70c | 4,977$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.76 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Yellow Submarine | 31c | 4,779$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.89 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MOUZ | 72c | 3,508$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.55 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MOUZ | 62c | 3,202$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.09 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 2,239$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yellow Submarine | 44c | 2,160$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.61 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed MOUZ | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.99 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 1,880$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Yellow Submarine | 28c | 1,805$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed MOUZ | 64c | 1,400$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.07 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Yellow Submarine | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.99 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed MOUZ | 67c | 950.7$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.88 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Yellow Submarine | 29c | 850.94$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MOUZ | 58c | 741.62$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.08 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Yellow Submarine | 33c | 547.71$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed MOUZ | 64c | 509.89$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.55 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine | 42c | 477.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked MOUZ | 67c | 475.92$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Yellow Submarine | 47c | 460.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ | 65c | 420$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 376.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 373.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 63c | 372.82$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed MOUZ | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yellow Submarine | 27c | 332.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed MOUZ | 55c | 304$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MOUZ | 67c | 303.4$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yellow Submarine | 28c | 299.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MOUZ | 70c | 256.19$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MOUZ | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Yellow Submarine | 33c | 218.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 214.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 209.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ | 71c | 195.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yellow Submarine | 27c | 191.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed MOUZ | 57c | 176.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked MOUZ | 56c | 133$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked MOUZ | 34c | 129.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine | 27c | 110.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Yellow Submarine | 48c | 105.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed MOUZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed MOUZ | 68c | 98.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…44bcbacked MOUZ | 64c | 93.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 36c | 76.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked MOUZ | 64c | 76.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac17…eccabacked MOUZ | 50c | 72.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MOUZ | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed MOUZ | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yellow Submarine | 31c | 52.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…b0d0backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 51.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed MOUZ | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…8f46backed MOUZ | 53c | 40.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…3f7bbacked Yellow Submarine | 47c | 38.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed MOUZ | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked MOUZ | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Yellow Submarine | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…b115backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 26.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed MOUZ | 61c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked MOUZ | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked MOUZ | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.