Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c59b06a55a59edf8e0c2657d85c4e7fcc734e4057b093338585cdad0fa4d9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof MOUZ, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cd…88efbacked MOUZ | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yellow Submarine | 37c | 3,512$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.06 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MOUZ | 72c | 3,226$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.24 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ | 64c | 3,000$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.98 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 2,597$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.13 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 2,307$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.21 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…bdb3backed MOUZ | 70c | 2,303$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked MOUZ | 51c | 2,168$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.79 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked MOUZ | 61c | 1,800$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yellow Submarine | 36c | 1,114$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.56 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ | 49c | 1,089$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.74 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked MOUZ | 59c | 1,075$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.02 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Yellow Submarine | 55c | 1,007$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.11 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yellow Submarine | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed MOUZ | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked MOUZ | 50c | 996$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…d1a4backed MOUZ | 70c | 913.52$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.14 | 242 | 55%133 W · 109 L | +14.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 898.7$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 64c | 780.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed MOUZ | 65c | 769.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MOUZ | 59c | 743.14$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.81 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 700$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.57 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…4a1cbacked Yellow Submarine | 36c | 700$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 68 | 73.5%50 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ | 44c | 620.1$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Yellow Submarine | 29c | 578.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.8 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Yellow Submarine | 41c | 510.57$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…03b6backed MOUZ | 23c | 428.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 377$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 356.03$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Yellow Submarine | 15c | 328.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.37 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked MOUZ | 42c | 307.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…3836backed MOUZ | 48c | 302$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ | 35c | 280.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed MOUZ | 64c | 260.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.1 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yellow Submarine | 42c | 258.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Yellow Submarine | 35c | 240$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed MOUZ | 72c | 223.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 222.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ | 59c | 209.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yellow Submarine | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Yellow Submarine | 33c | 183$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 167$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 167$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 68c | 146.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MOUZ | 52c | 146$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 141.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed MOUZ | 66c | 136.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Yellow Submarine | 22c | 136$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 135.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Yellow Submarine | 33c | 134.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yellow Submarine | 26c | 125$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed MOUZ | 29c | 121.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed MOUZ | 45c | 120.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 104.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed MOUZ | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Yellow Submarine | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…44bcbacked Yellow Submarine | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked MOUZ | 63c | 77.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed MOUZ | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ | 18c | 72.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ | 27c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Yellow Submarine | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Yellow Submarine | 36c | 65.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 35c | 60.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed MOUZ | 65c | 60.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Yellow Submarine | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 56.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Yellow Submarine | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed MOUZ | 40c | 51.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 50.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed MOUZ | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…4be9backed MOUZ | 50c | 49.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MOUZ | 68c | 44.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 42.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed MOUZ | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…3f7bbacked MOUZ | 69c | 29.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Yellow Submarine | 39c | 29.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked MOUZ | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.