TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Spread: Kings (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Oilersof Kings, Oilers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,389 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Kings41c2,004$817 inLost-$816.962,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ddd…bea6backed Oilers56c1,739$974 inWon+$764.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x150c…cbb4backed Oilers59c1,005$591 inWon+$414.17944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a8…95b7backed Oilers64c1,001$642 inWon+$359.242356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Oilers62c442.97$275 inWon+$168.331060%6 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Kings44c382.34$168 inLost-$167.9313348.1%64 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kings39c372.52$144 inLost-$143.591,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings48c320.46$154 inLost-$153.821,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oilers69c293.79$202 inWon+$91.752,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ddd…ce78backed Kings30c239.02$72 inLost-$71.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Kings40c224.6$89 inLost-$89.124946.2%115 W · 134 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kings41c213.2$88 inLost-$88.423,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee1…c8aabacked Oilers61c160.71$98 inWon+$63.073542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Kings38c159.52$60 inLost-$60.0292049.7%457 W · 463 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Kings41c154.17$63 inLost-$63.2126154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Oilers72c114.9$83 inWon+$32.3211159.5%66 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Kings40c108.42$44 inLost-$43.734547.8%165 W · 180 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kings30c98.61$30 inLost-$29.582,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Kings42c80$34 inLost-$33.660449.2%297 W · 307 L-17.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Kings45c72.3$33 inLost-$32.837642.1%32 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Oilers70c64.81$45 inWon+$19.448347%39 W · 44 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kings42c63.63$27 inLost-$26.5682353.1%437 W · 386 L+1.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kings41c60.82$25 inLost-$24.9261848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Kings28c56.22$16 inLost-$15.742250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7988…a57ebacked Kings27c53.67$15 inLost-$14.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Kings38c50.05$19 inLost-$19.0238551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Kings39c48.56$19 inLost-$18.8751343.3%222 W · 291 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa2d…18c6backed Kings48c39.98$19 inLost-$19.385945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings31c33.41$10 inLost-$10.341,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc53…6bd3backed Oilers59c33.22$20 inWon+$13.7254049.4%267 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Kings38c32.94$13 inLost-$12.526743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Kings48c32.1$15 inLost-$15.3833363.7%212 W · 121 L+44.3wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Kings40c30$12 inLost-$1265721.9%144 W · 513 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-54.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings38c26.96$10 inLost-$10.2489355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Oilers60c25$15 inWon+$102853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c49…c6c2backed Oilers56c18.78$11 inWon+$8.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed Oilers70c15$11 inWon+$4.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.