Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa686e654a233511c2857986f69b6b0301126ce35ab545f449959d0d75ac0d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 485.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 64c | 445.89$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.12 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 16c | 345.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 311$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 259.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 255.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 18c | 241$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 160.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 17c | 153.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf871…48c7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +613.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 27c | 115.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 33c | 106.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed No | 38c | 102.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…f1b2backed Yes | 18c | 96.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed No | 56c | 95.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 17c | 90.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 84.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 79c | 69.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked No | 39c | 69.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 37c | 48.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed No | 40c | 32.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…8dfcbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.