Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6cdc4725de3762f80f3682226c27ab8a30e55cef8d69f700820a45f50ccde1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35e2…6b9abacked No | 6c | 1,172$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 57c | 416$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c27…4099backed No | 48c | 415.71$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked Yes | 60c | 355$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…4744backed No | 35c | 340$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed No | 50c | 310.71$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 65c | 290.49$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 40c | 213$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 51c | 197.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 44c | 142.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb92…c583backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 48c | 99.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 84.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 35c | 55.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…f38abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…86b7backed Yes | 44c | 38.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 43c | 33.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…6e72backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?this page
- Will Angers be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will Brest be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will Le Havre be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will Lorient be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?No won
- Will Paris FC be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.