TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,687

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,626 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde49…fe85backed Over56c8,260$4,625 inWon+$3,635.3248451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c5,613$2,374 inLost-$2,374.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c2,063$858 inLost-$857.958,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under44c307$135 inLost-$135.081,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under19c180.16$35 inLost-$34.82,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under21c165.64$35 inLost-$34.846,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db6…8679backed Over79c154.7$122 inWon+$32.491963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under43c139.61$60 inLost-$59.923,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over62c122.63$75 inWon+$47.210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under25c111.79$28 inLost-$28.428,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under44c109.69$48 inLost-$48.261,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b1…c1cfbacked Under38c102.63$39 inLost-$3930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8193…8c82backed Over51c100$51 inWon+$492955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under44c90$40 inLost-$39.66,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under46c79.21$36 inLost-$36.111,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under47c52.61$25 inLost-$24.6146952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e11…d36ebacked Under23c50$12 inLost-$11.59026.7%24 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under42c50$21 inLost-$212,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over67c46.31$31 inWon+$15.4850962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under38c36$14 inLost-$13.522,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed Over79c35.19$28 inWon+$7.389553.7%51 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over69c34.78$24 inWon+$10.7587370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over64c30.37$19 inWon+$10.885,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Over78c15$12 inWon+$3.312654%68 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.