MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5936463dca4e80d1c7bbfe98a2629ee2f0fad222a3d7516326175aa7b517b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda48…5926backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 4,006$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 3,302$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…170fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 3,237$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 2,104$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 2,092$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 1,361$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 1,176$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 840$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 601.9$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 402.92$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 356.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 352$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 226.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 199.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 159.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 144.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 143.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 47.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 39.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 37.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 32.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 32.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.