MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8f0f6ebc67481299958f323d8e4f00b75b54d5423b05a90371e3c4c87a555e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 42c | 2,331$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.11 | 207 | 47.8%99 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 1,924 | 53.4%1,028 W · 896 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 42c | 856.99$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.42 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 612$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.96 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 574.03$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.77 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 25c | 395.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.03 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 27c | 385.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.64 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 42c | 235.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 231$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 22c | 219.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.59 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 212.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 206$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 193$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.05 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 170.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 168.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 151.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 58c | 129.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 129.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 115.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 57c | 106.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 103.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 33c | 98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 83.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 78.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 53c | 73.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 61c | 56.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 76c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 68c | 21.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 72c | 17.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.