Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaaa3f2128c9e13b9fc8067161778406b5452b1e66b28b8bb758d450839c08bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 7,106$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.93 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 5,313$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.25 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 25c | 1,530$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.2 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 10c | 1,505$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 77c | 1,010$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.71 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 798.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 21c | 605.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 76c | 599$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Under | 80c | 365$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 6c | 331.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Under | 75c | 249.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 179.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 135.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 16c | 133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…467bbacked Over | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 24c | 71.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked Over | 24c | 61.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…1bf1backed Over | 24c | 44.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…07d7backed Under | 76c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Under | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Under | 76c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Under | 65c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.