Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6d8dd9f52fa4cb2b77ebe204583676f60a67b163162e6afc93066241fc1b136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 59c | 8,864$5,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,210.1 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 7,074$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.85 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 3,421$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.76 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 69c | 2,007$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 1,821$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.41 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 1,663$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.2 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 1,649$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.68 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 32c | 1,430$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 45c | 1,353$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 45c | 1,065$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.34 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 49c | 1,014$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 43c | 892.74$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 884.69$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.18 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…41b4backed Over | 71c | 718.22$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 39c | 661.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.26 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 60c | 621.23$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.74 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Under | 52c | 599.73$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 61c | 518$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.98 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 483$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.23 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 51c | 459.48$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Over | 73c | 416.72$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 391.79$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Under | 17c | 382.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 41c | 323.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…d6cbbacked Under | 54c | 291.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 30c | 291.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Over | 43c | 291.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…fe0abacked Over | 58c | 258.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 62c | 238.56$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 72cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Under | 54c | 208.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 49c | 201.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…34c0backed Under | 54c | 185.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…4fcdbacked Over | 49c | 180.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e75…b009backed Under | 42c | 173.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 39c | 167.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…2712backed Over | 65c | 154.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 39c | 151.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 8c | 127.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 55c | 118.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 106$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 39c | 98.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…e559backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 87.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Under | 16c | 86.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 62c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 79.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 73.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…064abacked Under | 40c | 69.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 60c | 57.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 21c | 53.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3931…734ebacked Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 43c | 47.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 52c | 47.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 43.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 39c | 40.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ad…2dccbacked Over | 60c | 40.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 51c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…5312backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadcc…9cddbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.