Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfadef05511663141a8915f84b67448a538ecfd806b7c5c193bcd7f31777b3659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,038$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,155$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 986.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 631.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 19c | 428.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 412.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 5c | 371.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 366.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 5c | 348.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 342.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 315.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 285$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 18c | 249.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 9c | 210.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 8c | 202.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 11c | 178.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…e4b3backed Yes | 6c | 165.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…7dc3backed Yes | 20c | 155.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 12c | 143$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 9c | 132.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 122.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 121.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 9c | 118.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 22c | 106.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 86.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 70.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 23c | 70.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 70.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 65.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 61.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes | 20c | 59.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 22c | 54.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f54…682fbacked Yes | 22c | 54.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…5022backed Yes | 24c | 54.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…4898backed Yes | 21c | 53.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 51.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…f50dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 79c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d86…ad9bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7d5dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.