TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x318f…8a7cbacked Yes0c21,812$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c20,831$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.533,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes39c2,846$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.752,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f4…d132backed Yes56c1,451$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.1560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c1,344$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.861,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes8c1,332$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes4c1,221$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.541,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c1,210$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.5812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes26c1,081$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.7330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0597…5265backed Yes49c1,031$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes44c739.34$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes7c708$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No50c627.06$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.6616335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No54c603.71$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.258955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c558.95$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.381,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes68c551.47$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5619338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes32c549.92$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.417644.7%34 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No45c518.22$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.884,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes50c501.72$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.661,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes15c458.12$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c454.41$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.873,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb49…41a2backed No54c449.98$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.721741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No61c439.75$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No80c409.34$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes57c406.84$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2310617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes30c399.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.81631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No40c383.08$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.687659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes62c320.28$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes4c294.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c292.07$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No52c273$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5514659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No54c271.05$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes43c258.51$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.22138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No80c257.95$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.822,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes34c250.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed No53c242.12$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.124533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No51c242.01$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0849…d655backed Yes38c233.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.861464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes29c230.31$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes45c224.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4426…f755backed Yes33c221.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes52c219.9$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.774170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No60c214.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed Yes66c213.34$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.934030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No51c209.19$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes50c200.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1135233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1116530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No39c200$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c197.08$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.64,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes36c187.8$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1120358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes11c175.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1826834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes41c168.43$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c167.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes51c161.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.421,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4002…4ebabacked No64c155.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes75c151.53$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.274362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed No54c145.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6123633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes44c144.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.073839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c139.92$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbccf…95e1backed No54c139.68$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.131752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b14…5022backed Yes56c133.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.47933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No40c131.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9416863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed Yes36c129.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.873729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No56c129$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes50c123.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb5…5969backed Yes15c122.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No66c120.04$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes10c117.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1318530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes46c116.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.712759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes39c115.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.223540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes60c113$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.491747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.336241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…05a5backed Yes28c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68426.2%22 W · 62 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe38…f8f3backed Yes78c108.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes19c101.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.237552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…4b19backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4524238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x185a…3137backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3435429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c99.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes69c99.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.496046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes50c99.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes40c99.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No50c94.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2118052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No49c88.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6928456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No52c88.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.461,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No49c86.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.351,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3182…4ff7backed No68c85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2914168.1%96 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23e…2623backed Yes48c82.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b18…bd24backed No54c80.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.116564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…1be9backed Yes44c80.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3e…f2b1backed Yes50c80.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed No44c79.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes44c79.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.813324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes30c75.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8422236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes56c74.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…80aabacked No32c71.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.65468.5%37 W · 17 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+65.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.