TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,695
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,695 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes74c1,811$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.494047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No6c1,599$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fd…a5adbacked No1c1,269$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes79c1,200$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.7729953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes50c1,050$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.8930428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes65c1,048$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.2125362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c796.38$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes57c790.55$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.1819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed Yes66c749.66$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.187170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No22c633.79$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No46c600.2$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.78955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes24c547.67$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.831631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes75c509.35$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.93956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No37c495.29$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.941,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No13c494.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No7c476.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.342,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed Yes37c452.14$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.374030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c441.67$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.83,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes62c433.53$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.992,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes23c388.42$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.8534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c374.42$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No58c343.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5181165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c337.14$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes52c299.72$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.614659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No32c284$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.991,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11d…a1cfbacked No49c274.52$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes33c262.25$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No37c257.95$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.742,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No10c254.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c250$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.51,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes42c237.23$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf83…8508backed Yes25c236.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.221346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes43c234.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.341513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No73c228.37$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes29c227$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.194,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No49c219.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.532,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes30c207.73$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes32c203.4$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8810163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c195.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.71,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No16c190.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.651,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes28c175.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6820025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes57c173.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No24c161.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c159.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.493,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No7c157.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5318530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c156.46$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.654,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes49c151$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.751,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7632132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes34c149.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.092733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes51c148.29$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2939951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No33c139.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed No73c137.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes46c133.33$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes79c128.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0933349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes60c128.11$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.564362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No79c128$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.486070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…5e59backed Yes54c126.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.773860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes33c124.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.283540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c2…349abacked Yes28c122.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+261.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf069…b7fabacked No31c122.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes28c119.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes44c116$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.362759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes32c109.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.811747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7531…35debacked Yes28c108.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.064117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No42c107.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.672944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes27c107.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.513324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes35c103.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.822846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes25c101.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.262,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes29c101.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.538833%29 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6324238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7728742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes67c97.66$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9413959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes68c95.14$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.033759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c90$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4864…9438backed No45c89.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe736…9d9fbacked No11c89.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No61c82.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.128361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fe…1640backed Yes56c81.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.072982.8%24 W · 5 L+7.3wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No52c80.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.728456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes25c80.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.521330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87de…c545backed No73c74.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda63…8969backed Yes28c71.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.649929.3%29 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes33c71.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes25c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.698738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes54c69.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5086173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes46c65.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2710633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes68c65.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.611362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x845c…a1b2backed No51c64.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.021346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x070d…6ff7backed Yes31c62.38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.315334%18 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c62.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.211,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1f…be44backed Yes31c61.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes35c61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6313430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac0…0f1cbacked Yes35c60.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x704d…aceebacked Yes26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.21428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.413424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes32c59.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5818038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.