Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaef49669c3d836a137c2e0f88abd1e18006f711a7d7e92c0783a9fcb9b81ecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 71c | 20,000$14,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,799.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Yes | 29c | 14,644$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.62 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 3,130$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.08 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 29c | 951.24$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 860$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.59 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 28c | 746.58$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 724.17$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked No | 72c | 549.43$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 29c | 533.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 429.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 30c | 260.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 33c | 257.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Yes | 33c | 257.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed No | 72c | 204.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7e74backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Yes | 31c | 153.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 9c | 122.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 10c | 111.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 71c | 106.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 71c | 105.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 88.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…754abacked No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 71c | 74.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe981…5eb2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…2303backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…9cc2backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf8…00d1backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…d97dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 70c | 33.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…8f17backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 69cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed No | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah FA win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. Noah FA end in a draw?No won
- Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.