Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb623ed55b788cd71a35bcd1f3c1e8fb6aaedb0d17fbafade20eeb346837ce17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa036…0017backed Yes | 26c | 3,980$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xface…b7d3backed Yes | 21c | 3,850$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 21c | 1,945$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.97 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 29c | 1,766$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.92 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…cdb9backed No | 79c | 1,340$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…efdabacked No | 74c | 1,335$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…f854backed No | 74c | 1,325$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…7bc5backed No | 74c | 1,320$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe3…c9a4backed No | 79c | 1,260$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…65b6backed No | 79c | 1,250$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 70c | 1,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 75c | 960.79$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 641.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 535.15$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 36c | 530.47$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.73 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 528.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 80c | 500$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.29 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 29c | 496.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 467.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 70c | 413.26$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 394.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 24c | 392.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 367.75$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 77c | 365.74$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 74c | 357.08$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 343.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 27c | 330.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 330.41$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 327.86$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 277.79$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 270.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 269.77$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 12c | 266.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 260.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 27c | 229.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 66c | 226.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 79c | 221.64$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 26c | 220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 213.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 23c | 211.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…6ae8backed Yes | 27c | 197.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed Yes | 22c | 189.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 185.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 27c | 185$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 75c | 162.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 74c | 154.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 26c | 151.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 150.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…5005backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 147.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 22c | 136.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 26c | 134.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 132.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…30f2backed No | 78c | 128.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 23c | 108.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 34c | 106.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 29c | 104.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 103.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 27c | 94.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34ce…af70backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…c128backed No | 73c | 86.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…d6e6backed Yes | 37c | 84.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 79c | 79.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 27c | 76.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 49c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 39c | 75.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…9c80backed No | 66c | 70.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 34c | 63.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 63.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 79c | 62.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 60.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 23c | 59.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 56.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 53.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed Yes | 38c | 52.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 39c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 27c | 50.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 79c | 50.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…6a59backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 49.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 72c | 48.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 22c | 48.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.