Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0016e73d0e5649cfefe817208eeb08c723b319bcff64fe6847f8b2fc47315c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 3,895$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…01f1backed Yes | 28c | 3,514$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 1,794$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,655$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes | 16c | 1,349$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4815…598dbacked No | 72c | 1,197$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…774dbacked No | 72c | 1,167$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…5042backed No | 72c | 1,150$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 76c | 792.94$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 5c | 756.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 737.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 736.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 620.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 12c | 616.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 529.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 11c | 519.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 75c | 469.8$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 8c | 447.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 10c | 412.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 389.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 388.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 374.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 351.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 350.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 343.29$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed No | 70c | 334.29$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 333.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa92f…58b4backed Yes | 33c | 303.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 28c | 296.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 8c | 266.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 10c | 249.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 246.85$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 12c | 239.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…6ae8backed Yes | 30c | 223.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 205.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 10c | 194$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 26c | 192.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 179.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 159.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7f…e270backed Yes | 19c | 158.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 9c | 154.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 151.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 30c | 144.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed Yes | 12c | 143.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 15c | 140.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 139.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…09d1backed Yes | 32c | 137.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Yes | 20c | 133.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 77c | 130.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 37c | 127.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…0187backed Yes | 15c | 109.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 75c | 100.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5cc2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 99.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 98.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 93.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…5081backed Yes | 27c | 93.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 77c | 93.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 16c | 85.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 80.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 72c | 68.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 22c | 58.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…71c9backed Yes | 26c | 52.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 25c | 48.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 26c | 48.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 34c | 46.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 74c | 46.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…2a0bbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 79c | 39.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 34c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 36.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad39…11e4backed No | 78c | 36.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…15debacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…dbb7backed No | 72c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.