Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa862f7d795eafdf460efbe32ef2f70013589e724c536b86bf35a7a54742611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 3c | 5,156$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7469…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,663$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…db4ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,636$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ff…024dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,619$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…cfe1backed No | 63c | 1,372$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…01d4backed No | 63c | 1,352$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…5f19backed No | 63c | 1,320$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…787cbacked No | 63c | 1,299$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7f…b281backed No | 63c | 1,291$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…9a70backed No | 63c | 1,284$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 1c | 990.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 63c | 867.51$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.58 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 674.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 510.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.33 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 501.54$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 491.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 483.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 471.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 471.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 41c | 442.79$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.31 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 6c | 381.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 371.82$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 331.24$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 312.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 43c | 302.46$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 279.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 37c | 260.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 10c | 253.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 9c | 248.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 222.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 199.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 199.3$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 18c | 192$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 175.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 172.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 162.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 38c | 158.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 151$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 37c | 143.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 41c | 122.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 115.33$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…10a5backed Yes | 63c | 114.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 112.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 61c | 106.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 67c | 105.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 41c | 100.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5cc2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 37c | 99.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 64c | 98.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 67c | 95.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 46c | 90.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…6ae8backed Yes | 41c | 89.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 87.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 38c | 83.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 23c | 80.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 77.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 36c | 75.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 57c | 73.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 32c | 72.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 40c | 71.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 69c | 71.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…2f93backed Yes | 49c | 65.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 39c | 63.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…21f2backed Yes | 44c | 57.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 49c | 55.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 45c | 53.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 64c | 53.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 41c | 50.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…71c9backed Yes | 40c | 50.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 42c | 48.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 73c | 45.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 80c | 44.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 60c | 43.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 43.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 76c | 42.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 41.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…2815backed Yes | 35c | 36.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Yes | 38c | 33.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 39c | 33.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 36c | 33.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac5…343dbacked No | 54c | 33.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 27°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 42°F or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.