Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 139.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb83e8caf8138c25789f05134d8557852f621aaf365ad4e767c19f3bb09dda02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Over | 47c | 13,309$6,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,255.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 9,980$5,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.51 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,168$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.49 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Over | 47c | 1,983$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 855$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 4c | 800$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +775%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 709.85$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.66 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…e281backed Under | 55c | 544.2$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 45c | 410.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Over | 48c | 341.41$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 45c | 301.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 53c | 204.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 53c | 187.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 70c | 145.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Under | 52c | 145$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 136.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 53c | 107.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 43c | 80.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…ca29backed Under | 53c | 64.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…183ebacked Over | 27c | 59.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Over | 47c | 59.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 78c | 39.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 100 | 95%95 W · 5 L | +21.3wins | +0.21per pick | 74cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 69c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 139.5this page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa HawkeyesIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 131.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 133.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 134.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 135.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 136.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 137.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 138.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 140.5Under won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 141.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-4.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-5.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.