TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4095…5ecabacked Yes34c478.33$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c418.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No64c307.24$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes32c299.5$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No63c207.13$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes5c201.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9854143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542f…916abacked No65c199.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c195.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.323,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes43c190.55$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1420631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes44c169.71$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes26c153.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2933726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes15c151.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9734219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes36c139.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes25c123.65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes30c121.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.831,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes43c116.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed No72c115.05$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.372814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c111.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes34c109.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0529459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No60c107.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.049250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes14c106.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes31c104.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6716234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes41c100.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee89…cfb3backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes41c99.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c99.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5052…564cbacked Yes42c86.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed Yes14c85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7812223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No58c84.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.344448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c83.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes47c81.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes23c80.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c79.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes43c77.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.129137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c76.72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No67c76.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes40c72.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.023145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa16a…57d5backed Yes38c69.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.47647.4%36 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes36c68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.517540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes42c66.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4117338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes38c66.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes36c65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.427037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c63.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.223,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes49c61.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No57c60.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0484124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes38c60.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.627756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8516336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes39c59.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No63c58.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes28c54.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9466…4d38backed Yes42c52.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes32c51.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes42c50.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes40c49.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes39c48.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1942438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x953a…6646backed Yes42c47.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes56c44.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c44.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2758349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes44c40.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1832352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8c…d084backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes28c39.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes41c39.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No58c38.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1511449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No72c38.55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes36c38.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6916520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No71c35.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1518761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No70c33.3$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.131,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes38c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No79c27.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No67c27.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0918351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No63c26.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9527560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293a…24f9backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…7319backed No62c24.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4452…bc07backed No66c23.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No59c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked No63c19.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2410426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked No62c18.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.173658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No65c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No62c17.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.598640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe23b…8d60backed No59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.974456.8%25 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.