Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc97f027fe0fc4ab7497a0e6c71b8e7872c054bdfe9c90f573ce828f0dcdf7ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,146 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 536.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 330.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 56c | 286.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 74c | 282.65$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 281.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 51c | 265.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 235.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 64c | 222.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 39c | 195.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 49c | 192.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 164.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 47c | 163.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 63c | 158.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 158.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 157.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 144.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 143.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 143.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 140.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 64c | 128.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 123.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 44c | 120.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 52c | 117.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 71c | 114.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 44c | 113.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 75c | 106.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 90.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 78.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 33c | 76.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 14c | 74.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 36c | 68.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…5ecabacked Yes | 74c | 67.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 55c | 63.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 39c | 63.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 67c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 46c | 60.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 59.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…899ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 18c | 57.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 25c | 54.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 61c | 53.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 47c | 51.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 50.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 40c | 50.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 44c | 50.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 49c | 48.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 48.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 62c | 48.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 37c | 47.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 44.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 43.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 55c | 41.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 62c | 39.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 66c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 34.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 67c | 33.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 41c | 32.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 33c | 32.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 73c | 31.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 54c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 56c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 73c | 23.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 79c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 76c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 55c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…7d97backed No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 62c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 16.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.