TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,921
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,921 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres66c905.64$598 inWon+$307.2610,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c894.11$304 inLost-$3044,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates18c109.77$20 inLost-$19.762,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates16c107.54$17 inLost-$17.1912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates20c106.91$21 inLost-$20.941,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9412…730ebacked San Diego Padres67c90.1$60 inWon+$30.18154.3%44 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates23c77.11$18 inLost-$17.878,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed San Diego Padres67c47.61$32 inWon+$15.711,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.