MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9035139a2a8523cfa3bf023f6212ed7d306d415f0056373e655db9be659157f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf1…0db6backed Under | 56c | 1,555$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 940$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.75 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 11c | 856.15$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…78a5backed Over | 27c | 847.89$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 769$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.21 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 633.2$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…4c2abacked Under | 54c | 479.21$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 416.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.07 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 393.54$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 7c | 385$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 137 | 25.5%35 W · 102 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 71c | 375.44$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 358.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 4c | 333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 3c | 323$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Over | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 55c | 262.16$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 53c | 207.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 190.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 17c | 127.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 46c | 98.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 45c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf8…27cfbacked Under | 55c | 93.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 36c | 69.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 70c | 47.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 55c | 20.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Under | 55c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 75c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.