MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281f2908f84501bfd74dede4870f33f9e7b2133ab31f86c05f20ad3e58aba8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 41c | 24,542$10,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,054.4 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 59c | 14,850$8,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,088.39 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.99 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 58c | 4,210$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.5 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457f…aa1abacked No | 59c | 2,670$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 62c | 1,619$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.82 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 38c | 1,466$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.03 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed No | 58c | 1,449$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.47 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 59c | 1,300$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 1,269$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.08 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 1,209$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.69 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,084$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.12 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…ec19backed No | 59c | 900$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 39c | 742.18$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 40c | 573.91$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 500$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 61c | 398$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 62c | 324.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 255$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Yes | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…ff8cbacked Yes | 44c | 229.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 224$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 77c | 213.38$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Yes | 39c | 207.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Yes | 40c | 178$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed Yes | 43c | 116.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked No | 59c | 110.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 41c | 90.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 59c | 76.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 40c | 71.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 496 | 50.2%249 W · 247 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 60c | 71.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 189 | 55.6%105 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 59c | 54.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 41c | 39.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 38.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 59c | 34.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 379 | 51.7%196 W · 183 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 61c | 29.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.