MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd4b8259b775aa6b330ec1212faed0886139bb1ed7749da1278682bcf27f713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 1,302$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.46 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 1,186$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 32c | 971.36$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 939.48$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.06 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 755.32$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 499.97$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 490.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.57 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 364.65$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 326.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 285.06$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 268.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 215.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 135.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 134.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 133$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 75.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 30c | 65.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked San Diego Padres | 28c | 45.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 231 | 42.9%99 W · 132 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked San Diego Padres | 32c | 35.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 19.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.