MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa822e4c9b4ff660cc7e42ce7ed931a6d7cd01b6c98a52308237f99d314eb245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 1,960$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.39 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 59c | 1,590$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.2 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 48c | 1,540$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.89 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 671.34$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.64 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 31c | 491.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 61c | 306$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 235.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 190.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 59c | 159$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 59c | 157.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 153$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 59c | 102.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 52c | 100.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 59c | 79.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 59c | 79.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 60c | 62.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 55.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Over | 59c | 44.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 33.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 59c | 30.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 43c | 28.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Over | 59c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 58c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…5c2dbacked Under | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.