Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdcd8f5123d43cdf44630033ba77c6c36af0e2ee9255ccae95f253b7478f932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,078$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.66 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 52c | 689.43$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.17 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 16c | 604.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 487.02$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 49c | 461.71$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.91 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 48c | 355.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 319.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 266.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 79c | 236.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 196.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 51c | 176.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 16c | 161.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 147.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 125.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 122.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 58c | 120.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 14c | 116.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 116.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 115.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 15c | 110.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 65c | 106.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 100.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 62c | 95.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 53c | 92.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 26c | 92.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 84.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 83.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 43c | 79.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 27c | 75.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 62c | 72.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 69c | 71.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 63c | 68.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 60.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 60.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 48c | 60.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 52c | 57.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…4472backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 61c | 49.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 51c | 45.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed No | 80c | 42.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 60c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked No | 44c | 40.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 39c | 38.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 80c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 80c | 34.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 38c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 31.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 61c | 27.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 69c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 58c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.