Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc08f2c1e761e9098605e437d2b9a5961a5193a56d5cb5dac73ff7bf33325a9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 1c | 1,179$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 984.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 487.75$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 459.88$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.02 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 434.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 414.28$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.61 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 79c | 294.06$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 67c | 267.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 80c | 265.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 262.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 236$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 10c | 201.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 188.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 174.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 160.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 10c | 155.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 35c | 152.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 61c | 151.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 131.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 129$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 127.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 16c | 122.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 108.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 24c | 103.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 20c | 98.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 28c | 91.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 20c | 89.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 73c | 88.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 48c | 74.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 71.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 36c | 70.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 70.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 70.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 61c | 69.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 29c | 69.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 49c | 69.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 67.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 40c | 64.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 62.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 43c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 51.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 51.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 51.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 51.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 48.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 63c | 47.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 46.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 54c | 45.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 44.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 62c | 43.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 42.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 69c | 41.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddf…b38cbacked Yes | 28c | 41.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 35.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 40c | 35.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 56c | 34.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…885cbacked No | 74c | 32.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 32c | 32.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 60c | 30.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 59c | 29.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 68c | 27.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 40c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 74c | 25.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 46c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked No | 73c | 20.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…0962backed Yes | 80c | 16.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 15.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 77c | 13.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.