Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5db38af6e84fec4f23757069bff43739ee6798443f3bc7f8996e56d200a09f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,436$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 984.02$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 486.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 405.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 21c | 360.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 11c | 315.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 5c | 314.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 69c | 297.27$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 7c | 292.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 226.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 180.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 174.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 28c | 156.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 140.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 7c | 138.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 124.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 113.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 24c | 111.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 24c | 104.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 23c | 103.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 100.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 15c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 80c | 92.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 87.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 78.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 70.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 16c | 69.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 64.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 62.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 62c | 61.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 19c | 57.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 55.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 52.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 49.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 29c | 47.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 47.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 28c | 45.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 26c | 42.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 40.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 38.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 61c | 36.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 33.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 63c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 41c | 27.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 55c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.