South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe65ae67900710aaa779909375f82807978063fbb3634bb6a43b4cc0209473a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 77c | 2,609$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.1 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 1,831$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.06 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 38c | 1,147$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.65 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Yes | 76c | 721.62$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 568.05$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Yes | 40c | 550$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 25c | 403.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.7 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 39c | 310$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 245.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 73c | 218$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 47c | 213.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 207.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 29c | 199.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 35c | 186.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 174.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 69c | 171$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 68c | 168.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 36c | 160.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.36 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 151.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 55c | 147.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +15.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 139.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 32c | 133.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 32c | 133.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 63c | 117.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 26c | 113.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 62c | 113.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 65c | 112.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…da98backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 68c | 98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 63c | 91.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked No | 24c | 83.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 62c | 83.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 52c | 78.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…7a99backed Yes | 64c | 69.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…8086backed Yes | 73c | 68.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Yes | 42c | 67.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 21c | 61.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 44c | 58.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 52c | 55.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…4cfdbacked Yes | 73c | 54.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 41c | 51.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 34c | 50.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 36c | 50.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 48.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 165 | 34.5%57 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…d704backed Yes | 55c | 43.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 47c | 39.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…c327backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked Yes | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 53c | 31.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 48c | 29.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1d…8c4dbacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 70c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…32e1backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5977…0c7dbacked No | 65c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07?Yes won
- Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.