Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C or below on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc449f74cf570e4d65aca07843c18861de439114b290d95ddac1302931f4e789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,930 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 49c | 404.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.94 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 328.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 16c | 290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 63c | 260$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 41c | 220.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b30…d326backed Yes | 53c | 216.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 182.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 7c | 148.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 144.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 138.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 11c | 138.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 132.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…29f7backed No | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 98.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 51c | 88.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 86.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 26c | 83.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 69c | 72.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed No | 75c | 71.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 71.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 14c | 70.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed No | 42c | 67.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 65.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 29c | 63.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…52afbacked Yes | 60c | 63.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 37c | 58.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 52c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 47c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…887dbacked Yes | 50c | 52.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 70c | 51.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 25c | 44.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 66c | 37.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 42c | 34.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 57c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b43…3612backed No | 57c | 27.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 56c | 27.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 44c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 69c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550f…e0debacked No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…506bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…9fb7backed No | 73c | 19.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…4b45backed No | 75c | 14.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C or below on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.