CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc58014f6699c076e9fc7ddd6119cebc20a95748b50988febb7eb9582309f6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- K27of NIP, K27
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked K27 | 70c | 2,723$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.32 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked NIP | 29c | 2,260$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.38 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed K27 | 71c | 998.58$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed NIP | 30c | 809.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked NIP | 30c | 630.35$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked NIP | 32c | 592.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked K27 | 65c | 399.07$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed K27 | 68c | 313$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…5ce4backed K27 | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…96dfbacked NIP | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed NIP | 30c | 296.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed K27 | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 317 | 61.2%194 W · 123 L | +22.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked K27 | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed NIP | 32c | 156.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NIP | 41c | 150.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…11a5backed K27 | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed K27 | 70c | 125.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed K27 | 64c | 119.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 609 | 54%329 W · 280 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed NIP | 31c | 113.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked NIP | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 43.4%63 W · 82 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NIP | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked K27 | 59c | 84.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked NIP | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked NIP | 31c | 50.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…d471backed NIP | 32c | 48.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed NIP | 32c | 40.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed K27 | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…8869backed K27 | 70c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed K27 | 70c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed K27 | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked K27 | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked K27 | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 173 | 60.1%104 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…2a83backed K27 | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 PlayoffsK27 won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs K27 - Map 1 WinnerK27 won
- Counter-Strike: NIP vs K27 - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.