Other European Leagues · resolved market
SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5a33aa0caf7360e4dd825a4acb044e974c53d78880a5bd35cf6875312125a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 1,320$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.26 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 51c | 1,158$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.6 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 54c | 1,070$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.61 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 1,034$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.67 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 847$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.73 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 704.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.75 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 51c | 667.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.68 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 577.02$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 51c | 380.75$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 80c | 306.15$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 262.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 41c | 243.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 67c | 238.47$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 73c | 167.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Under | 53c | 91.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Over | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 27c | 69.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 44c | 65.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed Over | 34c | 56.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 49c | 53.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 45.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 43c | 39.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 55c | 39.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 34.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 43c | 32.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 26.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 56c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.