Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5bea19b5e9fe246913ec9ddef23b45bfeb22e856bb32554ca87b2b3df8a049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,882$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 1,777$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.13 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…3ea9backed Yes | 72c | 1,347$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 1,041$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.52 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 72c | 963.36$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.62 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 827$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.63 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked No | 72c | 618.68$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 594.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.93 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 542.8$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.24 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…d13abacked Yes | 72c | 407.23$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 385.14$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.57 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed No | 71c | 364.25$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 75c | 299$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.59 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 32c | 293.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…1373backed No | 73c | 256.16$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…daa8backed No | 73c | 242.47$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 38c | 228.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 227.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 24c | 225$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 157.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.14 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…617dbacked No | 73c | 142.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1e…f6a4backed Yes | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 61c | 141$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 71c | 110.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 33c | 101.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 30c | 98.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c185backed No | 73c | 93.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 25c | 91.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 69c | 90.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Yes | 29c | 88.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…637abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yes | 60c | 59.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 25c | 58.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…9cd2backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 34c | 53.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c9…0dfebacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 36c | 44.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 43.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 40c | 43.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…7fafbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 37.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c1…b554backed Yes | 30c | 34.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…c8f2backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 57c | 28.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 72c | 16.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-10?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.