TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No72c4,376$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.6775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes40c1,836$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.415134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes40c1,802$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.919549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed Yes37c1,456$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Yes22c1,340$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+60%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes18c1,300$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.853138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No64c1,260$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.411,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aad…72b7backed Yes24c1,233$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No63c1,111$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.115440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No66c1,096$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.915064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No60c775.94$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.2369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes38c726.36$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.026126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No62c699$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6210945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes37c654$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9816060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No60c506.28$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.510553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No71c367.63$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.153,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No63c340.54$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes24c312$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb3…c801backed Yes41c289.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No72c267.54$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1310463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No69c247.16$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.241,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No60c240.86$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.435457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Yes27c202.33$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7814539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2298…ac49backed Yes16c157.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.642231.8%7 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92ae…a7b0backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd642…c499backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed No69c134.78$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.785865.5%38 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a7…72c8backed Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Yes29c127.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.72650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes40c125.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6f…c966backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No67c103.32$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd34…dbc3backed Yes26c100.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd54…2941backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes17c99.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed No63c95.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.242161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes27c94.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes39c88.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.693748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes39c88.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.534547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes40c87.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.923221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes24c74.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes33c71.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes29c67.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.872,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No61c65.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9825855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…710fbacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No76c59.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6411644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes24c56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2621041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8918…f4e4backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee75…f23abacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x86a9…a074backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes40c47.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.192462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af7…937bbacked No72c47.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…f38dbacked Yes36c46.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes23c45.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2823842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No74c40.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5339558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.213852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No59c36.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1211644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes31c35.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9714934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Yes40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes37c33.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed No79c33.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.847230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes37c33.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.237152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7871…77c6backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0192…6995backed No79c31.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.73944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No60c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked No62c30.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4537344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Yes38c30.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.459831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No58c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.927466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed No77c25.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.046056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x125e…4845backed No66c22.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed No62c17.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.815547.3%26 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.046553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c88…d85dbacked No73c14.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed No74c13.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.611735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.