TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf164…8fa4backed No65c4,580$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6034658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes36c4,533$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes35c3,370$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.6169851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes51c3,117$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.2855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No37c2,700$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.92365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No66c1,940$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.982948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No80c1,749$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.761,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes37c1,584$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3115064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No62c1,461$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.92,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No52c1,420$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.2116060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No74c1,400$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.7675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…8da2backed No43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.79850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+44.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc28…10a3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3bb…c8acbacked No67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3305100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a53…cc07backed Yes33c995$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed No38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4722747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No65c716.28$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.79831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes34c697.06$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2374920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes35c665$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e87…2171backed Yes51c591.98$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes35c571.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes35c558.08$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1941,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes27c500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed No52c468.58$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.942650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10211036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Yes34c246.48$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.46251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No52c235$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.916347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes36c219.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8111644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No56c212$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5621041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7215453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…3328backed Yes60c198.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-40.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes37c158.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes50c145.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes34c112.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.222462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes34c101.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.534547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd34…dbc3backed Yes24c100.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58b2…5f92backed No37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes23c91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.536553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204926.5%13 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a3…790fbacked Yes35c88.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.091650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes59c84.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.724252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Yes37c83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.795853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No47c80.52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8323842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No59c80.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes35c78.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0134342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No51c71.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8812832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes59c66.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1810040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes34c64.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8137344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2113852.2%72 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…d865backed Yes60c53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd502…4d4cbacked No67c52.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.332161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x447d…630cbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No66c47.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0325855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Yes34c45.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+52.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0163…9aa0backed No67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.855156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked No68c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.42462.5%15 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7d…1c5bbacked No47c43.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed No66c40.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146056.7%34 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x390c…e88ebacked Yes63c40.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eeb…01b2backed No52c37.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2514934.9%52 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes46c37.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.222669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Yes33c35.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6618746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Yes35c35.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4325850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x125e…4845backed Yes37c35.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Yes47c34.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.117230.6%22 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No66c33.72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.475457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ec8…397bbacked Yes34c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.224143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf67…fc18backed Yes35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No48c31.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.348551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed Yes44c31.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa9b…faefbacked Yes34c30.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.63259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Yes57c29.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.092560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf43…90e0backed Yes37c28.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No65c28.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8812165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…a572backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.810771%76 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd934…a00abacked Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…1c65backed No68c19.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.382584%21 W · 4 L+6.9wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+45.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7f6e…6c73backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.