TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team WEof Team WE, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$464,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$647,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,472 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Team WE42c87,915$36,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,264.0627735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LNG Esports1c28,655$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.551,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed LNG Esports54c17,007$9,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,225.981,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked LNG Esports56c16,593$9,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,364.581,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LNG Esports59c12,750$7,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,497.072,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed LNG Esports61c10,221$6,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,191.771,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed LNG Esports27c10,100$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.255639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed Team WE43c9,556$4,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.2317155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LNG Esports57c8,660$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,936.21,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed LNG Esports57c8,600$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90259554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed LNG Esports58c7,698$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,464.961,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LNG Esports60c5,318$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.3154756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7c…4ca0backed Team WE44c5,282$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+44.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed LNG Esports51c5,250$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,672.453250%16 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LNG Esports59c5,250$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,097.51,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed Team WE17c5,068$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.5818633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team WE42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked LNG Esports57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8509750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed Team WE49c4,770$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.0513251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LNG Esports60c4,441$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,675.761,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team WE17c4,386$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,648.12,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed Team WE50c4,158$2,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.617936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Team WE45c3,521$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.0914035.7%50 W · 90 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed LNG Esports80c3,300$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6401,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team WE39c3,137$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.551146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LNG Esports62c3,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed LNG Esports8c2,701$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0948533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed LNG Esports55c2,666$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.8185836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed LNG Esports33c2,630$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.132,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LNG Esports59c2,495$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.6698956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Team WE42c2,381$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.9576955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed LNG Esports57c2,377$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.8958850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed LNG Esports62c2,300$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.9364553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked LNG Esports27c2,300$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.6911659.5%69 W · 47 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team WE41c2,036$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.2689943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed LNG Esports50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team WE41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Team WE41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18067250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed LNG Esports58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16032234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked LNG Esports56c1,964$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.8431646.5%147 W · 169 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed LNG Esports57c1,908$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.115453.9%83 W · 71 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Team WE42c1,871$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.269953.5%53 W · 46 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed LNG Esports57c1,766$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010046%46 W · 54 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team WE41c1,750$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.587844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked LNG Esports57c1,512$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.992,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9587…408cbacked LNG Esports61c1,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91514754.4%80 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed LNG Esports58c1,446$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.591,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Team WE30c1,443$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.3457947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1887…f75dbacked LNG Esports61c1,326$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.8212945.7%59 W · 70 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Team WE38c1,316$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.7935353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f15…f950backed LNG Esports6c1,301$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Team WE38c1,263$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.7813538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14e…61acbacked Team WE42c1,238$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.11376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed LNG Esports55c1,232$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.091,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed LNG Esports59c1,200$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9964453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team WE44c1,159$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.0996057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed LNG Esports62c1,100$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6821,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3429…5bd8backed Team WE64c1,099$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.711782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+66.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team WE51c1,089$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.9876639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team WE19c1,051$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.811,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Team WE41c1,000$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.471,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed LNG Esports56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9932160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked LNG Esports56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9940145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team WE42c939.9$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.781,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team WE50c893.94$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.9718961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Team WE71c850.8$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.852065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67e…ed46backed LNG Esports7c833.34$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.025242.3%22 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed LNG Esports41c800$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32742246.4%196 W · 226 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Team WE68c800$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1882953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Team WE39c799.96$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9829338.6%113 W · 180 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed Team WE38c799.26$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.266240.3%25 W · 37 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed LNG Esports60c758.64$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.3966458%385 W · 279 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed LNG Esports21c749.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2f…54c6backed Team WE27c729.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Team WE36c701.7$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.6211547.8%55 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed LNG Esports64c650$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.8230050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LNG Esports50c646.85$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.876142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked LNG Esports35c641.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.181,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Team WE47c639.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.1967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked LNG Esports60c630.99$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7933153.2%176 W · 155 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Team WE48c629.85$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.8592354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4b…4a75backed LNG Esports59c628.25$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.238751.7%45 W · 42 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LNG Esports53c627.5$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.0295041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team WE30c625$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Team WE27c593.22$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.5894144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc59e…a3febacked Team WE43c572.39$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.268150.6%41 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0f…732abacked LNG Esports49c570.23$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28013441.8%56 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked LNG Esports46c565.52$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.638655.2%213 W · 173 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…db18backed LNG Esports74c535.36$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.251258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team WE61c514.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.823,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team WE70c513.31$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.778043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed LNG Esports8c506.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0438835.3%137 W · 251 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed LNG Esports58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29013854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team WE38c500$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.51,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed Team WE47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.236538.5%25 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked Team WE9c494.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.421523.3%50 W · 165 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Team WE42c491$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.782842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked Team WE42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1982650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Team WE21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.1939747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2578…b2a6backed LNG Esports7c455.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.646245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.