Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Tiffany Justice for Education Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca1a2c7262a3718b3079428b50dd4114add3f48d1e44f9692b34e1f4ebe32a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x825f…afadbacked Yes | 22c | 1,002$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…7badbacked Yes | 49c | 642.41$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 30c | 527.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 68c | 501.16$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.29 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 26c | 483.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.83 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 65c | 405$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 73c | 358.13$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 19c | 328.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 74c | 299.15$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 58c | 266.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 253.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…895bbacked Yes | 50c | 219$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…ebf8backed No | 50c | 219$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 68c | 205$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 149.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 28c | 109.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…73acbacked Yes | 50c | 98.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 32c | 77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 48c | 71.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed No | 73c | 60.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 49c | 38.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 34c | 34.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…cc98backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Tiffany Justice for Education Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for Education Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Betsy DeVos for Education Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Elise Stefanik for Education Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Glenn Youngkin for Education Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Education Secretary?Yes won
- Will Trump nominate Ryan Walters for Education Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.