Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs Gauff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb1ffd532b30f47f03cf7a180cbee55872961f4c06a843d21e4da2c8e3d98e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Muchova, Gauff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Muchova | 53c | 7,150$3,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,367.81 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Gauff | 47c | 6,568$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.62 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Gauff | 47c | 2,021$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.91 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Muchova | 53c | 1,101$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.26 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Gauff | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Gauff | 38c | 963.29$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Muchova | 67c | 891.6$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.3 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d25cbacked Gauff | 49c | 808.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 135 | 49.6%67 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Muchova | 56c | 727.63$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.93 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Gauff | 28c | 655.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Muchova | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Muchova | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Gauff | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Muchova | 62c | 352.23$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…c200backed Muchova | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…16eabacked Muchova | 52c | 268$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +60%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Muchova | 74c | 201.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Muchova | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Muchova | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…59efbacked Muchova | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Muchova | 52c | 179.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gauff | 47c | 147.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…6cb9backed Gauff | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Muchova | 58c | 121.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Gauff | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…55afbacked Gauff | 49c | 60.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Gauff | 47c | 57.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…5bdbbacked Muchova | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Gauff | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Gauff | 47c | 38.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…4b61backed Gauff | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Gauff | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2624…426abacked Muchova | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Muchova | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Gauff | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Muchova | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs Gauffthis page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs GauffGauff won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
- Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco GauffKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.