TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs Gauff

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gauffof Muchova, Gauff
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,644

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41b4…10dabacked Gauff50c10,691$5,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,345.727452.7%39 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Muchova50c10,289$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,144.471,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Gauff49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.991,43728.5%409 W · 1,028 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Muchova41c1,542$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6303658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+48.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Muchova51c1,373$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.226,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Muchova35c1,308$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.354,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…ffe8backed Muchova62c1,159$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.5111754.7%64 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gauff55c1,039$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.724,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Gauff50c984.77$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.044641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…15ffbacked Gauff40c606.68$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.012347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd050…c915backed Muchova46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020846.2%96 W · 112 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40c6…59efbacked Gauff46c423.46$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Muchova50c391.06$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.016,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5a…96bcbacked Muchova51c385$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.356157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Muchova43c349.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.291040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Muchova51c329.19$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.891,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0129…e3c9backed Gauff45c291.31$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.229242.4%39 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Muchova54c271.6$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.572755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Gauff47c256.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.171,57939.8%629 W · 950 L-34.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Gauff53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.548637.7%183 W · 303 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Gauff50c249.78$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.132,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Muchova50c232.5$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.252,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3e…061cbacked Gauff45c217.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7810143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed Gauff55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e9…939ebacked Gauff49c191.84$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.848936%32 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Muchova51c181.12$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1874547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Muchova51c172.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8813948.2%67 W · 72 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Muchova57c138$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2627550.2%138 W · 137 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Muchova36c129.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4744423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Gauff65c118.09$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3392138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99eb…e4c1backed Gauff46c109.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Muchova50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,00938.3%386 W · 623 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed Gauff41c72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.48540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Gauff55c68.71$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9223451.7%121 W · 113 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Gauff58c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.333550.1%168 W · 167 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4438…f659backed Muchova57c60.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.532441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Gauff47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.32653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf025…48f8backed Muchova30c46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.573658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7079…58e8backed Gauff59c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1515048.7%73 W · 77 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63b…222cbacked Muchova41c36.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-50%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Gauff44c34.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.158045.5%264 W · 316 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Muchova45c31.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed Muchova49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.314852%77 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…e458backed Muchova60c20.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d77…523fbacked Muchova50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick56cpaid-65.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.