Tennis · resolved market
Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fec95b07c9cbedf9c9cf2165a0703bcdc9bb1cfe34746e38dfa405b83dd787c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc53c…b769backed Under | 48c | 208,623$100,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,138.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3f48backed Over | 52c | 207,929$108,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,806.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 41c | 2,852$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.47 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…cea7backed Over | 59c | 1,860$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.78 | 327 | 35.5%116 W · 211 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc83…fdd4backed Over | 52c | 678.13$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Under | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 269.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Over | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 59c | 237.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Over | 59c | 109.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Over | 59c | 58.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…ebb1backed Over | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 79c | 29.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…578abacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…a61ebacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Muchova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs GauffMuchova won
- Set 2 Winner: Muchova vs GauffGauff won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Gauff (+1.5)Gauff won
- Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Coco GauffKarolina Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.