Serie A · resolved market
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcbfa5b678d343c30710f8ce1e6fe2053731f277f699a0329320a49f8a9d326b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 2,939$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.78 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 25c | 1,999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.83 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 23c | 642.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 584.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 6c | 474.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 21c | 425.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 21c | 384$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 22c | 304.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 27c | 264.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 22c | 256.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 194.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 26c | 151.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 27c | 148.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 25c | 108.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Under | 74c | 78.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…df82backed Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 67.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Under | 74c | 66.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…dc9ebacked Over | 28c | 45.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…3a87backed Under | 74c | 31.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 74c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 26.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 76c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 74c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 77c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Genoa CFC won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Genoa CFC won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.