Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43292414ddc3f5a81b44b6e7d0fe821b861de2edd5cbc17992ac43acc11c59e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Genoa CFCof AC Milan, Genoa CFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Genoa CFC | 71c | 3,539$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.92 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked AC Milan | 26c | 2,865$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.65 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Genoa CFC | 74c | 2,717$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.12 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AC Milan | 25c | 2,705$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.14 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AC Milan | 28c | 1,669$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.3 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed AC Milan | 30c | 1,618$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.64 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Genoa CFC | 69c | 1,186$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.01 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked AC Milan | 33c | 818.18$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 782.63$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.37 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed AC Milan | 42c | 474.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.38 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Genoa CFC | 74c | 409.68$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked AC Milan | 30c | 379.93$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed AC Milan | 30c | 305.26$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 286.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed AC Milan | 29c | 284.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Genoa CFC | 72c | 209.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…c446backed Genoa CFC | 75c | 208.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 124.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Genoa CFC | 67c | 120.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacd…9845backed AC Milan | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…ea7dbacked Genoa CFC | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Genoa CFC | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Genoa CFC | 71c | 108.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed AC Milan | 12c | 101.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed AC Milan | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Genoa CFC | 68c | 97.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed AC Milan | 30c | 89.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked AC Milan | 30c | 76.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Genoa CFC | 67c | 76.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Genoa CFC | 33c | 75.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed AC Milan | 67c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Genoa CFC | 17c | 59.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Genoa CFC | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…6dd4backed AC Milan | 32c | 49.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked AC Milan | 39c | 48.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked AC Milan | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Genoa CFC | 33c | 41.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +6.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked AC Milan | 60c | 41.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Genoa CFC | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Genoa CFC | 71c | 38.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 36.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed AC Milan | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Genoa CFC | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Genoa CFC | 71c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Genoa CFC | 70c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked Genoa CFC | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Genoa CFC | 70c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Genoa CFC won
- Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.